Faculty
Professor Stephen G. Powell
Objectives
The art of modeling involves structuring and analyzing a business problem to arrive at compelling insights that help build organizational commitment to action. As in any problem-solving challenge, the analyst must balance the usefulness of the solution (for example, the power and credibility of the insights generated) with the tractability of the approach (that is, the analysis must be completed within time and resource constraints).
This art is an increasingly vital skill for decision-makers to master. Leaders in both the private and public sectors must make decisions despite a high degree of uncertainty. Well-constructed models facilitate these decisions by capturing and clearly illustrating the impact of critical factors, and facilitating high-quality discussion focused on the most important risks and tradeoffs.
Practical experience in this art is essential -- whether you expect to create your own models, coach an analyst to create models for you, or simply use models built by others in your decision making. In either case, improving problem-solving skills through modeling will improve your ability to lead an organization through a wide variety of decision-making challenges – from rapid-fire problems requiring “quick and dirty” analysis to strategic conundrums requiring extensive investigation. In both cases, a skilled practitioner will conceive efficient paths to the solution, and effectively communicate how to get there.
The primary objective of this course is to enable the student to develop facility in generating insights via modeling in a variety of realistic situations. The skills needed to be a successful modeler include the ability to recognize the key problem in a situation, the skill to develop a structure for analyzing the problem, the ability to carry out a cogent analysis, and the mental flexibility to present the analysis and insights to interested parties in a convincing, non-technical manner. The course is designed to be useful for any student, regardless of career plans. The skills developed here are vital to anyone helping organizations to navigate a course through uncertain and uncharted territory.
Through a series of practical exercises the student will develop these analytic and presentation skills. The course will also reinforce the quantitative analysis skills acquired in the first year. This is not, however, a course in formal quantitative modeling techniques. It builds on first year quantitative analysis methods but its focus is on tailoring the analysis to the problem at hand and the available time and resources.
Requirements
Materials
There is no text for this course. Modeling cases will be made available in class as needed.
Students will be expected to use Excel, Premium Solver, Crystal Ball, and the Sensitivity Toolkit on their laptops. Laptops should be brought to each class.
Honor Code
Each student is expected to work independently of other class members and other students on the modeling cases, except within assigned teams. Teams are specifically prohibited from working together. Students are encouraged to seek outside assistance for gathering facts relevant to the cases, but not to use assistance in the process of modeling and analysis. The instructor will be available to work with students on the modeling and analysis aspects of the cases. Students are encouraged to discuss their work with the instructor.
Attendance
Each student is expected to attend every class. If an absence is unavoidable, the instructor should be notified well in advance and appropriate arrangements made jointly by the student and instructors.
Grading
The grade in this course will be based on class participation and three team modeling assignments.
Class participation 25%
MediDevice (A) 25%
National Leasing 25%
Draft Commercials 25%
Schedule
Tuesday
December 1
Introduction to Modeling
Topics:
-course introduction
-ill-structured problems
-modeling process
-modeling tools
-influence diagrams
Preparation:
Read Modeling for Insight pp. 11-26.
Wednesday
December 2
Problem Framing and Diagramming
Topics:
-iterative model building
-generating insights
Preparation:
Describe your problem frame for Red Cross.
Submit final influence diagram(s) for Red Cross.
Thursday
December 3
Generating Insights
Topics:
-iterative model building
-generating insights
-presentation standards
Preparation:
Prepare presentation to Red Cross management.
Tuesday
December 8
MediDevice (A)
Topics:
-modeling process
-presentations
Preparation:
Prepare MediDevice (A)
Wednesday
December 9
MediDevice (B)
Topics:
-iterative model building
-generating insights
Preparation:
Revise models for MediDevice (A).
Thursday
December 10
National Leasing, Inc.
Topics:
-problem framing
-influence diagrams
Preparation:
None
Tuesday
December 15
National Leasing, Inc.
Topics:
-modeling process
-presentations
Preparation:
Prepare presentation to National Leasing management.
Wednesday
December 16
Draft Commercials
Topics:
-problem framing
-influence diagrams
Preparation:
None
Thursday
December 17
Draft Commercials
Topics:
-modeling process
-presentations
Preparation:
Prepare presentation to Commercials management.
